CrisisWatch N°75, 1 November 2009

New CrisisWatch bulletin from the International Crisis Group

CrisisWatch N°75, 1 November 2009

Three actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and four improved in October 2009, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch, released today.

In Pakistan, a military ground operation against Taliban strongholds in South Waziristan triggered a new wave of displacement and was surrounded by a brutal escalation in militant attacks across the country. At least 200,000 have been forced to flee fighting in the northwest region amid reports the military is impeding humanitarian access. Attacks elsewhere left hundreds dead, with over 100 killed in bombings targeting a market in Peshawar on 28 October.

In Iraq, over 150 were killed when several massive explosions struck government buildings in heavily-guarded central Baghdad for the second time in three months. Progress towards national elections scheduled for January 2010 also faltered, as parliamentarians failed to reach agreement on a crucial electoral law. The situation also deteriorated in Zimbabwe, as Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai disengaged from the unity government to protest stalled implementation of September 2008’s power-sharing deal. While Tsvangirai has stopped short of withdrawing from the government, the move has underscored risks attendant to the current political impasse between the power-sharing partners.  

Hopes for peace in Nigeria’s Niger Delta increased, as thousands of militants laid down arms in response to the government’s three-month amnesty program and the dominant militant group MEND announced a new indefinite ceasefire. Whilst these are significant steps forward, concerns for stability in the region remain, including the government’s capacity to deliver reintegration programs and prospects for much-needed development.

In Honduras, a late month deal between the de facto government and ousted President Zelaya increased chances for an end to the political crisis that has gripped the country since the 28 June coup. The deal awaits approval by the country’s Supreme Court and Congress, and would see Zelaya reinstated as president under an interim power-sharing government. A new peace agreement between Tuareg rebels and the government in Mali consolidated progress towards an end to the long-running conflict in the north and resulted in agreement from elusive rebel leader Ibrahim Ag Bahanga to disarm.

Armenia and Turkey took a further step towards normalising relations, following the signing of draft protocols on 10 October restoring diplomatic ties and opening their common border. Both parliaments now need to ratify the accord, and Crisis Group identifies the situation as a conflict resolution opportunity.

Crisis Group identifies a conflict risk alert for Afghanistan, as the country heads towards a crucial second-round run-off scheduled for 7 November following highly flawed presidential polls in August. Political uncertainty increased considerably as CrisisWatch went to press, as incumbent president Hamid Karzai’s opponent Abdullah Abdullah withdrew from the race over risks of electoral malpractice. A second disputed election risks further eroding confidence in Afghanistan’s electoral process and strengthening the hand of Taliban insurgents. Urgent action is required to ensure accountability for electoral fraud during the first round and to push forward key governance reforms.

October 2009 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Iraq, Pakistan, Zimbabwe

Improved Situations
Armenia/Turkey, Honduras, Mali, Nigeria

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Armenia/Turkey, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Fiji, Gabon, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Honduras, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

November 2009 OUTLOOK

Conflict Risk Alert
Afghanistan

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Armenia/Turkey

*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.