Rayale's Final Days in Power and his desperate attempts to hold on
African dictators use various tactics to consolidate their power. They use fear, bribes, arm-twisting, divide-and rule and a litany of other tools to hold-on to power against the will of the unfortunate people they happen to rule over. Furthermore, the coupling of dictatorship with an intelligence background is a recipe for an explosive mixture that could end up in a big explosion that affects millions of people.
For example, Rayale, the current president of Somaliland used to be a low ranking NSS officer in the collapsed Somali regime. He held on to this post into the final days of the regime. His elevation to the highest office in Somaliland after the death of his predecessor, Egal, has heralded an era of uncertainly and instability that brought the area at times to the brink of a meltdown.
Unlike his predecessor, the late Mohamed Ibrahim Egal, who used dialogue and wisdom to defuse potentially explosive situations, the NSS throwback uses military power and confrontation to stay afloat. In his reign, Somaliland development stagnated. The rich have become richer and the poor have become poorer. Money that could have been well spent on building roads, hospitals, water supplies and decent educational institutions has been diverted to support a military apparatus equipped with the latest weapon systems.
In his latest attempt to hold-on to power and discredit the opposition, he tried to paint Silanyo, the leader of the opposing Kulmiye party, as a unionist and threatened to throw him in jail if the later failed to apologize for what Rayale termed as high treason. Luckily for Silanyo, the people of Somaliland refused to buy into that claim and have welcomed Silanyo into Hargeisa like a hero. It is kind of surreal for a former NSS colonel who worked for a dictatorial regime in the most abhorrent institution, to portray the chairman of the SNM, one of the armed militia movements that plunged Somalia into a bottomless abyss, as a traitor and unionist.
Rayale has another, more dangerous card up his sleeve. He is probably reserving this card for the final showdown when all other tactics have failed. This card can potentially plunge the North into a conflict that puts the one to the South to shame.
n October 2007, Rayale used his military machine to illegally occupy the capital of Sool, Las Anod, on the pretext of being part of the old colonial British Somaliland. Using thousands of dollars to bribe some militia leaders in Sool, his armored vehicles rolled into the peaceful city of 85000.
The aftermath of the invasion is mass exodus for thousands of families who resented the occupation of their city. The current spate of mysterious explosions and turmoil has made life for the remaining families unbearable and most of them are contemplating moving as well. The most recent explosion targeted the Rayale appointed governor of Sool in the presence of another NSS throwback, Rayale's Minister of Interior, Cirro. The NSS-like reaction of the Minister to the explosion was to impose long curfews, shut down the mobile network, and ban of the use of mobile phones in the city. Thousands of innocent families cannot communicate with their loved ones in the Diaspora or other cities inside the country.
Rayale knows that it would be impossible for his army to hold on to the city for long as some in the Somaliland opposition had expressed. Therefore, it is only logical to conclude that the costly invasion has a hidden political agenda. It is not a far-fetched assumption that the militia on his bankroll will start shooting in the opposite direction on Election Day prompting him to impose a state of emergency to postpone the elections yet again. He used this tactic before when he declared that thousands of votes in some parts of Sool such as Aynaba, that were affiliated with the opposition as null and void giving him a narrow victory of 80 votes.
Many in the opposition already attribute the recent spate of explosions in the city of Las Anod to the security services on Rayale's bank roll. His NSS man in the city is in jail awaiting trial for the recent murder of the commander of the Somaliland forces in the area. The opposition has cried foul and insisted that the accused man be held in a Las Anod jail instead of being relocated to the infamous Mandhera jail where they fear Rayale will either set him free or eliminate him quietly.
Another card that Raylae has started using recently is terrorism. He is trying to portray the people of Las Anod as terrorists who are affiliated with the Shebab movement. Unfortunately, International Institutions like the ICG have fallen prey to these baseless claims and have started repeating them without any proof. A recent Somalilandpress communiqué went as far as painting the 12 Traditional Leaders in the area, Isims, as terrorists affiliated with the Al-shebab movement who are plotting to destabilize Somaliland. There are even reports of US and Ethiopian agents in the city to help Rayale and his regime bolster his grip on the city and its population.
These traditional leaders, who have stayed away from their homes in Las Anod for more than two years, have recently assembled in a small village known as Holhol to support the recently elected regional administration known as the Council for the Salvation and Unity of SSC regions in Somalia (HBM). The purpose of the Council is to unite the people of Sool, Sanaaga and Ayn (SSC) in North-East Somalia in their support for a United Somalia.
Rayale tried to interfere with the assembly and sent a contingent of his forces to the village to disrupt the meeting. Luckily, these forces failed miserably to disperse the Isims who have relocated to another village in the area to finalize their deliberations which are expected to end up supporting the new Council. HBM is expected to help the Federal government establish the rule of law and consolidate its power in the area.
The people of the Northern Regions should realize that the peace they have fought for so hard to achieve is under threat by Rayale and his NSS compatriots. They should say no to Rayale's misadventures just as they said no to his attempts to incarcerate the leader of the opposition party Kulmiye which will hopefully win the election and live up to its Somali name of brining the Somalia people under one roof once again.
They should heed the advice of the respected Sheikh Mustapha who vouched for the importance of Somali Unity by using subtle, convincing and practical arguments in one of his recent sermons to the Diaspora. The Shiekh is based in Hageisa where Rayale masterminds his divisive policies and will hopefully escape the wrath of the dictatorial regime which has so far fooled the world into believing that it is the only democratic regime in the area.
They should also listen to Caasha Luul Mohamoud Yusuf who just last night visited us in our living rooms, courtesy of Universal TV, and was declared a Somali Abwaan (bard) by a panel of judges for her patriotic poem Gariir. Caasho was born in 1974 in Ballidhiig, Northern Somalia and is going to be a force to reckon with in the complex world of Somali poetry which has until recently remained a male dominated arena.
The likes of Sheikh Mustapah and Caasha Luul give us hope that Somali patriotism is not dead as some would have liked us to believe.
Ali H. Abdulla
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