At the IGAD Summit last week, Ethiopia agreed to back the efforts of Kenya, the AU and Somalia's government to end the Islamic insurgency in Somalia. IGAD's Executive Secretary Mahboub Maalim said IGAD had asked Ethiopia's government to "come in and assist peace and stabilization", and he added "there was a promise from the Ethiopian government that they would do so." Ethiopia will respond to requests from AMISOM and the TFG and any operations will be carried out under the auspices and with the agreement of IGAD Chiefs of Defence Staffs. Reports of large-scale Ethiopian convoys across the border have been greatly exaggerated though there have been, as in the past, some reconnaissance missions in border areas. It has been made clear that any troops that do participate in operations at the request of IGAD, AMISOM or the TFG will only be involved for short periods to support TFG forces or assist other Somali forces fighting Al-Shabaab.
On Monday, this week President Sheikh Sharif told members of the public in Mogadishu that at the IGAD Summit last week which he had attended Ethiopia had made it clear it was not interested in deploying troops in Somalia. He added that some countries had been pressuring Ethiopia to contribute soldiers to AMISOM but it had refused. "Ethiopian officials have been telling us in every meeting we have had that they do not want to send their troops to Somalia, but that they want to strengthen neighbourly relations and cooperate in the fight against Al-Shabaab". He emphasized the role that Ethiopia is playing would be to strengthen its border security and to support Somali government forces.
On Monday, Al-Shabaab banned 16 aid groups from the regions it controlled, alleging they had been carrying out "illicit activities" and "misconduct". Among those involved were several UN agencies, UNHCR, the World Health Organization, UNICEF, the UN Population Fund and the UN Office for Project Services, as well as the Norwegian Refugee Council, the German Agency for Technical Cooperation, Solidarity, the Danish Refugee Council, Concern, Norwegian Church Aid, Cooperazione Internazionale and Action Contre la Faim. Aid agency officials said it was truly bad news for the tens of thousands who depend upon these agencies for aid and assistance. In a statement, Al-Shabaab accused the agencies of "financing, aiding and abetting subversive groups seeking to destroy the basic tenets of the Islamic penal system", and of "persistently galvanizing the local population against the full establishment of Islamic Sharia system". It claimed the banned groups lacked "political detachment and neutrality with regard to the conflicting parties, thereby intensifying the instability and insecurity gripping the nation". The agencies were also accused of misappropriating funds and using corruption and bribery as well as passing information about Al-Shabaab activities.
Following the lifting of the famine status for three districts, aid agencies have begun the resettlement of some of the tens of thousands of drought displaced Somalis now in camps around Mogadishu. The United Arab Emirates Red Crescent Society has started a project to resettle some 4,000 families, about 24,000 people, back in their homes so they can take advantage of the rainfall before the end of the rainy season. The returnees are being given food for three months, material for shelters and some cash for each family. The returns are voluntary with most of the families going back to Bay and Bakool and Lower Shebelle, the three regions which have been reclassified from famine/humanitarian catastrophe to humanitarian emergency areas. Somalia's National Disaster Management Agency says it is the government's policy to resettle all the internally displaced people and more returns are planned among those willing to go back. Many of those involved are farmers keen to get back to take advantage of the best rains for three years and plant crops.
There have been few reports of Kenyan/TFG military activity on the ground during the week though the Kenyan air force has continued to carry out operations to decimate and degrade Al-Shabaab's capacity to plan and launch operations. There have, however, been reports from areas of central Somalia and Juba regions that local militias have been taking up arms against Al-Shabaab authorities, apparently in anticipation of forthcoming AU/IGAD military assistance. Clashes between militia and Al-Shabaab forces have been reported in Middle Juba this week. In the Middle Shabelle village of Adadey, fighting led to deaths on both sides after people responded to the beating of a women by beheading the Al-Shabaab militant responsible. A subsequent Al-Shabaab attack was driven off and Al-Shabaab apparently abandoned the area.
…..and Progress in the Somalia Roadmap
Last weekend the UN organized another Consultative Conference, attended by members of the international community as well as government officials and representatives of Ahlu Sunna wal Jama'a, civil society groups and the regional administrations of Puntland and Galmudug. Participants heard reports from the four joint committees which have been looking into issues of security, the constitution, political outreach and reconciliation, and good governance. The next phase of the consultation process will be held in Garowe, in Puntland, and will focus on discussion of the draft constitution.
Considerable progress is being made in organizing the Roadmap as the progress report at the end of last week demonstrates. In the security area the Joint Security Committee (JSC) has been meeting regularly for the past few months with the August meeting the first to be held in Mogadishu. The October meeting was held under the new 2-day format called for by the Roadmap and, for the first time, included representatives from regional stakeholders, Puntland, Galmudug and Ahlu Sunna wal Jama'a. The National Security and Stabilization Plan 2011-2014 (NSSP) has been drafted and finalized with input from the regional stakeholders and was debated and approved by the Council of Ministers at an emergency meeting on 26th October and then submitted to Parliament.
The TFG-controlled security zone has been expanded and now 98% of Mogadishu is under the control of the TFG, and ongoing stabilization of the city continues with Somali Police and TFG forces consolidating gains after the August expulsion of Al-Shabaab. New district administrations have been re-established in the newly-liberated areas of Mogadishu, and the Police and the National Somali Security Agency are conducting regular patrols all over the city, with regular checkpoints established around the city to examine vehicles and collect weapons. The Prime Minister has also established a special taskforce made up of police and security forces to secure humanitarian aid distribution in Mogadishu. He is now holding regular meetings to coordinate activities with the Ministry of Interior and National Security, with the Mayor, the Police Commissioner and the 16 District Commissioners, and to discuss Mogadishu security. District Peace and Security Committees implement the outcome and decisions of these meetings.
Outside Mogadishu, the TFG continues the offensive against Al-Shabaab in the south of the country in its joint military operations with Kenyan troops in Lower Juba and Middle Juba regions. In Gedo region, the TFG is in the process of stabilizing the region after succeeding in ousting Al-Shabaab and in creating a buffer-zone to deliver humanitarian aid. On piracy, the Anti-Piracy Taskforce is undertaking capacity building activities and building a robust national coastguard. It is coordinating information and activity between the Office of the Prime Minister, the Ministry of Interior and National Security, and the Ministry of Fisheries as well as collaborating with regional administrations under the Kampala Process on Piracy.
The Committee of Experts for the Constitution was appointed on 23rd September. It is composed of 9 members selected by the Prime Minister and the Minister of Constitution in consultation with stakeholders. The committee is currently in the process of preparing for the National Consultative Constitutional Conference scheduled to take place in the second week of December in Garowe, Puntland. The topics to be discussed will include Federalism, a Decentralized System of Administration and other outstanding contentious issues. The Joint Committee to prepare for the adoption of the Draft Constitution and for recommendations on the reform of the Federal Parliament was appointed on 20th November. The Council of Ministers has already appointed a Cabinet Select Committee on Election Preparation and by mid January this will have produced draft legislation related to the establishment of an independent electoral commission and nominations for members of the electoral commission, rules governing the conduct of elections at district, regional and national level, and laws related to the formation and registration of political parties.
There has also been progress on political outreach and consultation starting with the successful Consultative Conference on the Roadmap in September where the TFG, Puntland, Galmudug and ASWJ were all present. That conference was preceded by several high-level visits, including visits to Puntland by TFG Prime Minister Dr. Abdiweli Mohamed Ali on 26th August and by TFG President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed on 28th August; and by Dr. Abdiweli Mohamed Ali to Galmudug on 30th August where he signed a historic 8-point plan on strengthening relations between the two administrations. On 19th September, a high-level reconciliation dialogue took place in Nairobi between the TFG Minister of Interior and National Security, the TFG Minister of Constitution and Reconciliation, the Deputy SRSG, and emerging regional administrations. In mid October, a government mission led by the Deputy Minister for Interior and National Security went to Puntland and Galmudug and to ASWJ areas. Another mission that month led by the Chief of Armed Forces and AMISOM recruited soldiers from all regions for joint training in Uganda.
During the past 3 months, the TFG has supported local level reconciliation and peace building initiatives across the country. This has involved inter alia sending reconciliation delegations to Galmudug, Himan and Heeb, Puntland and Gedo to reconcile conflicting groups. Inclusivity and participation is one of the key principles underlying the implementation of the Roadmap. Civil society is a key partner of the TFG and a Civil Society Organization Consultative Meeting was held in Mogadishu last weekend with the business community, traditional elders, diaspora, intellectuals and artists, NGOs and professional associations, religious leaders, women groups and youth representatives all represented.
The final area of consideration is that of good governance. The Prime Minister has established several mechanisms for greater coordination and information sharing including a Humanitarian Drought Response Ministerial Committee of 8 Cabinet Ministers, set up on 30th June to oversee the delivery of humanitarian assistance to IDPs. This committee meets weekly with international partners, local NGOs and the Somali Disaster Management Agency which was created as an independent agency by the Prime Minister in July to manage all disaster issues within the country. Since its establishment it has produced monthly reports on all the incidents that have occurred in recent months and on ongoing needs. In September, a Humanitarian Coordination Office was created within the Office of the Prime Minister tasked with ensuring that the information flow between the TFG and its humanitarian partners runs smoothly. It has brought together the Ministry of Interior and National Security, the Somali Disaster Management Agency, UN OCHA and the Mogadishu Mayor's Office in a working group to meet regularly on the humanitarian crisis.
On 17th November, the Select Cabinet Committee on Anti-Corruption reported back to the Council of Ministers on a proposed legislative framework, recommending the reactivation of Law No.10 of 1968 to re-establish the Bureau for Investigation of Corruption. This will now update the relevant laws within 60 days, and in the meantime Interim Commissioners have been nominated and are in the process of being vetted. The government demonstrated its concern over corruption in October when two Mogadishu district commissioners were arrested, prosecuted, and sentenced after they were found guilty of diverting food aid. --mfa
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